Member for Heathcote Lee Evans says his biggest success in a dozen years has been that voters trust him to deliver as he prepares to face potentially hostile boundary changes in the March 25 state election.

Heathcote has shaped as one of Labor’s best hopes to unseat a Liberal member thanks to a redrawing of boundaries which takes away Liberal-leaning areas in the north such as Menai and Bangor and adds left-leaning suburbs Coledale, Austinmer, Thirroul and Bulli in the south.

Evans, elected in 2011, admits that while there are “strong similarities” in the people he represents, there are different issues in different areas.

“My electorate is really two electorates – the northern Illawarra and the Shire-based suburbs,” he said. “People want to be heard and I have a proven track record for listening and fighting for my community’s needs.”

The changes have transformed the seat’s margin of 5 per cent Liberal-favoured to 2.1 per cent Labor-favoured, according to thetallyroom.com.au website, founded by electoral analyst Ben Raue. Another index estimates the seat has become notionally Labor by a 1.7 per cent margin.

Evans feels cost of living, fiscally responsible government and health are the three issues concerning voters most.

“The people of Heathcote have trusted me to deliver for them for 12 years, and it’s a trust I continually seek to deserve,” he said. “I feel confident they will vote for the candidate they feel will deliver on the important issues.”

Evans pointed to the Heathcote Rd upgrade, Stanwell Park Public School’s new hall, the Great Southern Walk project, securing a $1.6 million grant to revitalise Helensburgh and the $600 million Waterfall rail stabling yard among benefits he has helped the area accrue.

If ALP candidate Maryanne Stuart appears familiar, it’s because she has contested against Evans twice before, and while being unsuccessful, achieved pro-ALP swings above the state average.

As for Evans’ winning record against her and the boundary shift, Stuart is dismissive.

“I am not looking [at] past results or previous records – I am focusing on the conversations I am having,” she said. “When I was nominated to run,
I vowed to be an advocate for my community and that is what I am doing.

“The only poll that matters is election day. Our hospitals are underfunded, we have a teacher shortage and the cost of living is increasing because of privatisation. NSW Labor will end privatisation.”

Stuart sees cost of living, transport and health as the three major Heathcote-specific issues.

“Under the Liberals, our transport system has become unreliable, infrequent and overcrowded, forcing more people onto our already congested roads,” she said. “Our health system is in crisis. Labor will enforce minimum safe staffing levels to ensure patients get treatment when they need it.

“We will expand hours of the Bulli Urgent Care Centre to operate seven days a week instead of the current five days.”

At 22, Greens candidate Cooper Riach hopes to present a fresh approach underpinned by the party’s grassroots foundation and environmental focus. His party gained 9 per cent of primary votes in 2019 overall, but that figure was as high as 33 per cent in the Austinmer area.

“The people of Heathcote are telling me it’s refreshing to see an alternative to the same stale old politicians,” Riach said. “Climate and housing crises demonstrate the Coalition has comprehensively failed this electorate. Labor can’t be trusted to make the transformational kind of changes we need.

“The sitting member is part of a tired and visionless government clearly in its dying weeks. People are hungry for change.”

Riach said the boundary redraw added pressure to live up to expectations: “I don’t want to let our small communities down. Ultimately the redraw does give me a better chance … or at least prove the Greens have strong backing in eco-conscious communities such as Thirroul and Bundeena.”

Professor Greg Melleuish, a Wollongong University lecturer with expertise in political theory, believes Evans will find it “very difficult” to hold the seat, citing the slide in support since winning Heathcote in the 2011 landslide with 62.9 per cent (two-party preferred).

“This declined to 57.6 per cent in 2015 and 54.96 per cent in 2019,” he said. “He has failed to consolidate his position as incumbent.

“He will be vulnerable in 2023 when one would expect an even greater shift to Labor for two reasons. One is that the Coalition government is
12 years old and in need of reinventing itself, which I do not think has happened.

“The addition of Bulli, Austinmer and Thirroul will strengthen both the Green and Labor vote. Even though these are affluent areas, they do not vote Liberal.”

Major issues for voters will relate to cost of living, Prof Melleuish says. “There may be a bidding war over what government will do to ameliorate effects of this.”

Further south, shadow health minister Ryan Park, who has spent his whole parliamentary career (since 2011) in opposition, will be defending the seat of Keira against Kit Docker (Greens).

Wollongong councillor Cath Blakey will represent the Greens in a contest for the seat of Wollongong, held by Paul Scully (Labor) for seven years. In Kiama, former journalist and union director Kaitlin McInerney (ALP) seeks to unseat Gareth Ward, who will stand as an independent.

Liberal candidates for Keira, Kiama and Wollongong had not been named at time of press.   

The 2023 NSW State Election is on Saturday, 25 March. Voting will take place at selected public schools, surf clubs, churches and community centres. Find your nearest venue at elections.nsw.gov.au