While recent rains in the Illawarra may have reduced any immediate bushfire risk this summer, experts from the University of Wollongong (UOW) say the devastating wildfires in California demonstrate there is no cause for complacency, especially as the impact of climate change increases the threat. 

Scientists have now broadened the definition and impact of the global climate crisis to include a growing 'Global Fire Crisis'.

UOW bushfire expert Associate Professor Owen Price believes there's every chance Australia will experience equally ferocious and damaging fires to those that have torn through Los Angeles if climate change isn't addressed. 

While the fires in LA have been described as 'unprecedented' in the loss of property and the total damage bill, there are many parallels with the most recent bushfire crises in Australia which occur more frequently now than in preceding decades.

"California experiences these Santa Ana wind-driven fires regularly," Associate Professor Price said. "But they have been getting more frequent, more severe and pushing later into the winter months in recent times, almost certainly due to climate change." 

He said there were several regions of the world where highly flammable vegetation abuts urban areas, including Australia.

"California is probably the most exposed, but many of our major cities have this problem including Hobart, Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra. Major disasters occur when there is drought, high winds, and a fire starts near one of these urban areas." 

A terrifying prospect

He said the research community and some Australian fire agencies were terrified at the prospect of one of these fires punching through the first layer of houses and causing urban conflagration.

"This is exactly what happened in Los Angeles. Strictly speaking this has never happened in Australia but it's come close, and we think it will happen one day, again largely because of climate change," Assoc Prof Price said.

In the late 1960s, the escarpment above Wollongong was ablaze, threatening suburbs, but without anywhere near the losses experienced this month in California. Every year that goes by, however, means the next major bushfire threat gets closer with the growth of more undergrowth on and around the escarpment in a world that gets hotter year on year.

Black Summer fire study provides stark findings

UOW researchers, including Assoc Prof Price, have also contributed to an international study 'What do the Australian Black Summer Fires Signify for the Global Fire Crisis'. 

The 2024 report described the impacts of the 2019-20 Black Summer fires as "diverse" and "unexpected".

"While the fires ringed the largest metropolitan area in Australia (i.e. The cities of Sydney, Newcastle and Wollongong), the losses of lives and property on the fringes of these cities was relatively small compared to regional areas. Nonetheless, impacts extended into major population centres through smoke exposure, which contributed to an estimated 429 deaths, additional to the 33 people who lost their lives directly as a result of the fires in regional areas."

The study concluded the 2019-20 Australian fire season, which included the so-called Black Summer Bushfires, were "heralded as emblematic of the catastrophic harm wrought by climate change".

"The Australian Black Summer fire season burnt a globally unprecedented percentage of the continental forest biome, produced the largest forest fires recorded in recent history and exposed Australian ecosystems to an unprecedented extent of high severity of fire."

Unlike the impact of the LA fires on a community linked to America's rich and famous, during the Black Summer Australian bushfires, the study found "the impacts were disproportionately borne by socially disadvantaged communities".

The report argues that "the rate of change in fire risk delivered by climate change is outstripping the capacity of our ecological and social systems to adapt."

"The Black Summer fires were associated with record-breaking fuel dryness and fire weather. These conditions arose out of the driest and hottest year on record for Australia, which was a function of climate variability exacerbated by climate change."

The report questioned whether those in charge of protecting Australian communities had learned the lessons from our 2019-20 Black Summer.

"While governmental inquires produced broad-ranging recommendations, we argue they have not resulted in a fundamental shift in the way in which fire will be managed in the future.

"The rate of change needed to recover and respond to the rapidly changing outlook for fire risk may challenge the capacity of our political, policy, technological and social capacity to adapt in time."